The method I used in predicting the 2012 local election results was very simple. By looking at the 2007 local and parliamentary elections I could see the support each party retained from the parliamentary elections in the local elections. That percentage then could be applied to the 2011 parliamentary election to guess (given the support remained the same across the two elections) the 2012 local election result. Next, I will outline how I calculated the support that each party retained from the 2007 parliamentary elections. The building blocks of Scotland’s thirty-two local council areas are constituencies. In Scotland there are seventy-three constituencies spread about the thirty-two council areas. So, for each of the local council areas I added up the support each party received in that council’s constituencies. I did this for both the 2007 and 2011 parliamentary elections. Then I divided each party’s 2007 local vote total into the vote total each party received in the 2007 parliamentary elections. The result of this calculation gave me the support each party retained from the parliamentary elections in the local elections. Using each party’s percentage, I multiplied it by the vote total each party received 2011 parliamentary result to get the estimated 2012 local election result. [4] For a numerical example see the North Ayrshire council area worked out below.
North Ayrshire (Local Council) = Cunningham North (Constituency) + Cunningham South (Constituency)
2007 Parliamentary Election
Conservative | 8,539 |
Labour | 19,517 |
Liberal Democrat | 3,797 |
Scottish National Party | 17,397 |
2007 Local Council Election
Conservative | 7,330 |
Labour | 17,666 |
Liberal Democrat | 2,564 |
Scottish National Party | 16,081 |
Support Retained from Parliamentary Election
Conservative Support Retained | 7,330 / 8,539 = 86% |
Labour Support Retained | 17,666 / 19,517 = 91% |
Liberal Democrat Support Retained | 2,564 / 3,797 = 68% |
Scottish National Party Support Retained | 16,081 / 17,397 = 92% |
2011 Parliamentary Election
Conservative | 5,930 |
Labour | 18,067 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,090 |
Scottish National Party | 26,532 |
2012 Local Council Election
Conservative | 5,930 * .86 = 5,090 |
Labour | 18,067 * .91 = 16,354 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,090 * .68 = 736 |
Scottish National Party | 26,532 * .92 = 24,525 |
However, it is important to note that I am only comparing first preference votes so my prediction is only valid for the first round of voting. But by looking at the first preference votes you can a feel for how the country is leaning. However, it is important to remember that even know 74% of voters got their first preference most candidates were overtaken at least once.
The 2011 Parliamentary elections took the trends we saw in the 2007 local elections to another level. Once again we saw Labour’s support base continue to deteriorate while the SNP made serious strides. Peter Lynch from the University of Stirling comments on the SNP’s success
The nationalists tore up the election rule book, set in on fire and dumped it into the North Sea when they completed the North –East clean-up of all FPTP seats in the region and then won a regional list seat too.The SNP won a joint record number of FPTP seats on a record share of the vote-some seats where predictable gains given such a strong showing, but others were stunning. The nationalists shattered Labour’s central belt domination as well as crushing the Lib Dems everywhere except Orkney and Shetland. The political map across Scotland is now very yellow.[5]
The Liberal Democrat’s situation was accurately portrayed by The Guardian, “Lib Dems-slapped, punched, kicked, knifed and left for dead.”[6] The situation was no better for Labour because after this election many believe that they have no heartland left. [7] The 2011 election results were no less brutal on the Conservatives. Although their misfortune was not as severe as Labours or the Liberal Democrats, they did receive their lowest vote share ever: 13.9%[8]
If you refer to tables seven and eight you can see a breakdown, by council area, of the first preference votes received 2007 and theoretically in 2011. From table seven you can find the support each party had in the first round by dividing the votes each party received into the total amount of first preference votes. Labour received 33.4% of the first preference votes, Conservatives 19%, Liberal Democrats 12%, SNP 33.0% and Independents 2%. However, as table eight shows, the trends from the 2011 parliamentary elections are likely to continue in the 2011 election. I predict that in 2011 Labour will receive 32% of the first preference vote, Conservatives 15%, Liberal Democrats 7%, SNP 45% and around 2% for the Independents. This is a drastic change from 2007 because the SNP gained support at the expense of the other parties. As we know the 2011 elections were very hard on every party (the Liberal Democrats in particular) except for the SNP. Unfortunately for most councillors the 2011 local elections are going to present a significant challenge.
For a more visual description of the changes each party has endured please see graphs two through five. Graph one showed us earlier that the trends from the 2011 parliamentary elections should be mirrored in the local elections. The SNP will clearly dominate the first preference votes as compared to the other main parties. This explosion in support is seen perfectly in graph four. Areas like Glasgow and Inverclyde are predicted to have the largest increase in support in the elections. Building on the SNP’s success, the ever decreasing support for Labour continues as their share decreases yet again from 2007. Labour’s decline can be seen very vividly if you refer to graph two. This graph clearly shows Labour’s support slowly across all thirty-two council areas decreasing since 2003 and their fortune in 2011 will not improve. From this observation we know that the 2011 elections are predicted to be anything but a breath of fresh air for Labour. The future of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will not be optimistic is something is not done, especially the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives are going to slightly lose support like we saw in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Graph three expands on this by showing that the Conservatives have been gradually losing support ever since 2003 and should continue to in 2011. They are predicted to have a very close race in Southern Scotland so they need to play a strong hand if they want to capture some first round seats. As for the Liberal Democrats, they really need to focus in this election because it’s predicted that most of their council seats will go to SNP or Labour. As graph five shows it, the Liberal Democrats will be hurt the most in 2011. This being said they must start the election running because if they don’t we will see another massacre like the parliamentary election.
Overall it is clear that the 2011 local council elections will follow the similar trend as the 2011 parliamentary elections as defined by my data. We will see Labour’s support base being transferred over to the SNP. However, the SNP will not stop with Labour. If the SNP has the support it had in the 2011 parliamentary elections and they retain that support locally as they did in 2007 then we will watch them sweep the first preference vote. But one must remember that the merits of STV will counteract the SNP’s success with opposition party councillors. The Conservatives will have a tough fight on their hands but they can prevent what happened in the 2011 parliamentary elections if they put forth the effort. As for the Liberal Democrats, they are going to experience another May 5th 2011 massacre if they do not put a considerable amount of effort into this election.
[1] Amy Rodger (2007). The Local Authority Elections in Scotland 3 May 2007. (Electoral Reform Society Scotland: Glasgow), pp.14.
[2] Ibid,16.
[3]Lewis Baston (2007). Local Authority Elections in Scotland. (Electoral Reform Society Scotland: Glasgow), pp. 18.
[4] This is assuming that the support retained by each party from the parliamentary elections will be roughly the same in 2011 as in 2007.
[5] Ross Burnside, Murray Earle, Stephen Herbert, Greige Liddell & Lain Mclver (2011). Election 2011 SPICe Briefing11/29. (Scottish Parliament Information Centre: Edinburgh), pp. 31.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid,32.
